Tuesday, September 25, 2007


I am in the mood to talk about foreign affairs. Let's start with the big white elephant in the political room. ( I just love mixed metaphors)

Should we have gone in? I think so. Did the current administration bollix the job up? No question they did. However, I would rather not talk about the past. I would rather talk about what we do now.

I see three options.

1. Stay the course. Great option if we can eventually prevail. The magic 8 ball says "answer not clear"
2. Pull out. OK but what happens then. The most likely scenario is that after a bloody fight between rival Shiite factions an Iran dominated Shiite regime rules the south. This gives our friend Ahmadinejad and his black turbaned fundamentalist friends more power. Sunni Taliban like terrorist loving types will rule the center. The Sunnis and the Shiite each attempt genocide on the other and millions die horribly.
Meanwhile the Kurdish north is invaded by Turkey and maybe Iran and the Sunnis each grab a small piece. Many many Kurds die as Turks, Sunni Arabs and Shiite Persians try to wipe out the Kurds for good. Now that option does not seem attractive for anyone except the terrorists and the Iranians does it?
3. We divide the country. If we can set up a neutral regime in Shia Iraq that might mitigate some of the problems. First we have to do some ugly fighting to weaken some of the other militias. Of course Sunni land would be a lost cause. The only hope might be for Kurdistan. We could station some troops their . The Kurds like us and this would benefit them because it would keep the Turks off their backs. The Turks would be really unhappy about all this but we could tell them we will help prevent cross border raids by Turkish Kurdish terrorists. This would benefit us because it would give us a base on the Iranian border. So if we have to pull out this is a slightly better option.

As I am writing this a fourth option comes to mind. It is possible for the terrorists and militias and insurgents to be shut down. Only it would take a lot more troops then we have. Probably double the amount we have. Maybe we can get some other nations to step up with a little blackmail. The Arabs do not want the country divided because they are afraid it will make Iran more powerful and their brethren in Iraq will be left with the part of the country that has no oil. Actually it does not have much of anything. The Turks do not want the country divided because they fear a resurgent greater Kurdistan. Their may be other nations who do not want to see options 2 or 3 happen. Lets tell them pony up troops or we pull out and see what happens.

The people who advocate pulling out had better be prepared to live with the consequences because they will be compounding any problems already created. I wish we could leave too. But at what cost do we do that? If genocide ensues can we live with that?

If you want us to pull out you better have a plan better then what I can come up with.

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